PVC resin industry development trend
PVC resin consumption in our country are mainly concentrated in two areas of south China and east China, guangdong, zhejiang, fujian, shandong and jiangsu provinces such as total consumption accounted for about 70 of the national total consumption. 0%, among them, guangdong and fujian market demand is big, but the capacity is insufficient, high proportion of imported PVC resin; 0%; Basic equilibrium production and sales in north China. In the future, as the central and western regions of strengthening its development and large-scale infrastructure construction, PVC resin consumption will gradually increase in the Midwest.
2 demand forecasting
[ 5] PVC resin industry belongs to the basic type and energy-intensive industries, are greatly influenced by demand and energy prices, is also a basic chemical raw materials, therefore very closely linked to economic development. From 2012, due to domestic PVC resin capacity continues to decrease, while the downstream demand growth is relatively slow, and export, import, domestic PVC resin enterprises overall capacity utilization is not high, therefore, idled capacity number is larger, the market price also remain low, price fluctuation range is reduced, in addition, PVC resin futures listed in a certain extent, increased the fluctuations in the price of PVC resin market uncertainty. Looking forward to the next few years, PVC resin industry in China will remain one of the more difficult integration period, will have a variety of factors affect the development of PVC resin in our country in the future.
1) cost barriers
polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
PVC belongs to the basic chemical raw materials, product difference is small, completely competitive market pattern in the country, the cost of high and low are the main factors influencing the enterprise competition ability. Because industry characteristics, raw materials and energy has a higher proportion in the product cost. Oil cost of ethylene method was mainly affected by the price of oil; The production cost of calcium carbide method was mainly affected by calcium carbide cost, in general, calcium carbide cost about 70% of the cost of PVC, and power costs accounted for about 60% of the cost of calcium carbide, due to the abundant power resources in the western China, electricity prices are relatively low, compared with eastern carbide production enterprise, production by calcium carbide method in western companies have certain advantages in terms of cost. And have the resources disposition, form a complete set of calcium carbide production of enterprises, to build a more solid cost barriers.
2. Industrial policy barriers
chlor-alkail industry to promote the upgrading of industrial structure, standardize the industry development, in accordance with 'optimizing layout, orderly development, adjusting structure, energy saving, environmental protection, safety in production, technological progress,' the principles of sustainable development, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the alkali ( Caustic soda, PVC) Industry access conditions 'and started since December 1, 2007: in the aspect of industry layout for new chlor-alkali production enterprises should be close to the resources, energy producing area, the eastern region in addition to the relocation companies in principle no longer new PVC by calcium carbide method and instead of caustic soda related projects; Process for construction and reconstruction of PVC by calcium carbide method project must at the same time supporting the construction system of calcium carbide slag cement and so on comprehensive utilization of carbide slag device; Access from the energy consumption index and environmental protection to set the standard in new projects. The adjustment of the industrial policy greatly improve chlor-alkail industry capital, technology, talents, resources threshold.
(3) the size of the barriers to
production scale is larger, the investment needed for PVC high fixed costs, economies of scale. Large scale enterprise in negotiations with suppliers in a more advantageous position, is beneficial to reduce the cost of raw materials. The valspar large enterprises, the market share also is higher, accordingly has a larger market influence, are relatively easy to obtain customers. PVC production enterprises, once the achieve large-scale production and sales, the marginal cost will gradually reduce, and enhance the anti-risk ability.
(4) capital barriers
at the same time, as the country to safety, environmental protection regulation increasingly strict, chlor-alkali production plant construction must form a complete set of large corresponding environmental protection device ( Such as calcium carbide route must form a complete set of calcium carbide slag cement plant, etc. ) , money is more, most of the small and medium-sized enterprises generally can't afford to.
as a result, the investment industry manufacturers must have strong financial strength, barriers to exist a certain amount of money.
India's domestic market demand for PVC increased year by year, from 2009 in 170 to ten thousand tonnes in 2012 to more than 220 ten thousand tons; But only five former Indian PVC production enterprises of domestic production capacity of 1. 25 million tons/year. India Finolex industrial company is India's large PVC pipe manufacturers. Due to the supply and demand are not balance, there is a big gap, the average Indian PVC imports amounted to 950000 tons. India, meanwhile, the vinyl material gap has increased year by year, in 2011 to 72. 20000 tons, 2012 in 97. 60000 tons, in 2013 will reach 1. 12 million tons. According to statistics, from April to September in 2012, India PVC imported mainly comes from South Korea, Taiwan, China, Germany, the United States, Mexico and other countries and regions, including PVC imported from Taiwan and South Korea and China are more than 200000 tons.
Rajesh Deshpande, says India PVC downstream products is given priority to with PVC pipe and fittings, accounted for 43% of the country's total PVC downstream products. Six months before the 2012 ~ 2013 year downstream demand growth of 20%, imports rose by 50%. According to the speed of development, to March 2013, India's domestic market demand will reach 2. 2 million tons, PVC pipe the pace of development will reach double digits.